24th July 2024 Commodity Market Report

Chicago soymeal has been hitting the lows of August 2021 and funds are close to a record short.

• Sterling is weaker against the dollar week-on-week, 0.4 cent versus $.

Proteins

Soya

• Safras peg Brazil’s 2025 soybean crop at 171.5 million tonnes, +20 million year-on-year, but it’s early days.
• Funds close to record short so susceptible to a bounce.
• China said to be uncovered for Sep-Feb 2025.
• US soybean crop rated 68% good/excellent versus 63% average pace.
• US beans priced lower than Brazilian.

Rapemeal

• Rapeseed crush will need to decline unless the seed outlook improves. Potentially 8 million tonnes of seed imports required into Europe.
• Improving outlook in Canada (largest rapeseed exporter) with 20 million tonne crop and rising.
• ADM agriculture have reported that Ukrainian yields are unchanged for now at 2.7 million tonnes so far, which is close to the 5-year average of 2.8. The regions that are yet to harvest do generally yield better, so there is scope for this to improve.

Maize Distillers

• US ethanol production very strong, +3.4% year-on-year.
• Margins are excellent incentivizing production.

Fibres

Palm Kernel

• Crush margins remain strong enough to incentivise production.
• 2024 expected to be average production year overall.

Soya Hulls

• Argentine bean crop at 51 million tonnes, double last year’s figure.
• Market direction driven by liquidity and without sustained volume, Argentine farmer selling prices have some underlying support.
• Some improvements in liquidity seen recently.

Sugarbeet

• In general, weather driven delays to plantings raises concerns over negative yield impact for 2024 campaign (October onwards).

Cereals

Wheat

• Western Europe worries with the French wheat crop rated at just 52% good/excellent, -5% week-on-week and an eight year low.
• Low prices encouraging consumer buying and discouraging farmer selling, at both local and global level.
• Hedge funds short of 12 million tonnes of CBOT wheat.
• 2024/25 global wheat ending stocks (excluding China) -4 million tonnes year-on-year and stocks: use ratio at 17 year low.
• US winter wheat harvest 76% complete, in line with average pace. US spring wheat rated 77% good/excellent versus 59% average.

Barley

• UK and Western Europe planting and growth issues due to saturated soils.
• Early French yields poor. Famer selling very light.
• UK 2024/25 barley surplus c. 700k tonnes, but no export demand.

Maize

• Black Sea weather remains stressful this week for their maize crop. Next week is cooler with showers and limited relief.
• 2024/25 global maize ending stocks:use ratio (excluding China) is below average.
• Hedge funds at record short.
• US 2024 growing season is good and a record yield is forecast, giving a 384 million tonne crop and ending stocks of 53 million tonnes – a six year high.
• US maize crop rated 67% good/excellent versus 67% average.

Fertiliser

• UK urea prices have eased on a firming UK pound sterling, although global demand remains strong, and buyers will need to return at some point.
• UK AN prices remain flat. We can offer Yara Prilled N 34.5% prill for Aug-Oct delivery.
• The surge in global phosphate prices continues to be supported by MAP prices CFR to Brazil, up another $15/t. DAP CFR to the Indian West coast is up $12/t week-on-week. These price hikes have been passed on to the UK market across all traditional phosphate products.

Performance Products

• Fluctuating grass quality can result in omega-3 deficiency, linking to poor performance. Lintec can help make up any shortfall, being a high omega 3 product.
• As well as supporting fertility by boosting hormones involved in oestrus activity and the prevention of early embryo loss. Lintec can also reduce inflammation; alongside these benefits it is proven to reduce methane emissions.
• Restore nutrient balance after calving with Translac HydroBoost.
• Translac HydroBoost contains electrolytes, calcium and energy, everything a cow needs to quickly restore its nutrient balance after calving and to increase its blood calcium levels.
• Translac HydroBoost also stimulates dry matter intake after calving which helps in maintaining good milk production and body condition.
• Supplying the correct amount of vitamins, minerals and trace elements is important for optimum production, health and fertility.
• Deficiency or excess of minerals can reduce performance and seriously affect animal health. Get in touch with your account manager to make sure your ration is balanced efficiently.

Forage

Wholecrop Inoculants

• With the start of wholecrop harvest, do you have your preferred inoculant in stock?
• Advantage of inoculants include:
  • Reduced dry matter losses.
  • Helps minimise nutrient loss.
  • Provide more digestible neutral detergent fibre - NDF and crude protein.
  • Generate more lactic acid and reduce ammonia production.
  • Inhibit mould formation and therefore reducing mycotoxin risk.

• Inoculants available:
  • Ecocool – Aerobic stability (current offer buy 11 units get one FOC).
  • Ecocorn – Aerobic stability plus potassium sorbate, inhibitor of yeasts and moulds.
  • Sil – All 4x4 – Faster fermentation with aerobic stability and contains an enzyme.
  • Pioneer 11A44 – Suitable for higher dry matter crops. Rapid react option.
  • Pioneer 11GFT – Fibre technology.

Grass Reseeding

• Do you have grass leys that are not performing at their peak? Would they benefit from reseeding or overseeding?
• Contact us to discuss specific options according to your requirements.
• View our grass leaflet here.

Sustainable Farming Incentive SAM3

• Are you wondering what your best options are with regards to the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI)? Contact us to discuss your options.
• Looking at SAM3 herbal leys? We have a number of options available to ensure that production is not compromised.
• Request a copy of our environmental brochure.

Sustainable Farming Incentive SAM2

• Are you looking to put in a winter cover crop? Contact us to discuss your options.
• Request a copy of our environmental brochure.

Roots

• Brassica crops offer an additional extended summer feed option or can be used for finishing lambs and winter keep.
• Stubble turnips, forage rape, swedes, hybrid brassicas and root mixes are available from ForFarmers.
• You can find out more about our range of forage root crops here.

Autumn Cereals

• Many options are available for autumn sowing. Please contact us to discuss variety options.

Weekly currency trend

£1.289 /$ - Mixed

£1.188/Euro – Mixed