31st July 2024 Commodity Market Report

Crude oil price lower as Middle East tensions less than feared.

Proteins

Soya

• Pricing in the UK for soya meal has increased around £8/t week-on-week. Firmer off the back of dry weather reports in US crop regions.
• US bean crop condition looks comfortable. Unchanged week-on-week at 68% and well ahead of last year’s at 54% and 63% average pace.
• Soil moisture well ahead of last year as we approach August - a critical month for crop development.
• Bean supplies for 2024/25 stocks at highest since 2018/19. Further increases anticipated in Brazil with the USDA predicting a 169 mmt crop.

Rapemeal

• Declining European and UK production, with low early yield being reported. A further 0.5 mmt reduced from anticipated yields.
• Canadian crop concerns. Conditions now hot/dry during critical flowering period.
• Premiums built into 2025 pricing to cover EUDR risk.
• Rape is currently 76% the price of soya.

Maize Distillers

• Corn distillers feature well domestically in US when compared with alternatives. Export demand still strong.
• WASDE confirms big US corn crop still expected.

Fibres

Palm Kernel

• 2024 expected to be average for production overall. Expectation was lower following El Nino but now raised.
• Spot market pricing supported by Irish demand.
• Crush margins continue to incentivise production.

Soya Hulls

• Argentine bean crop at 51m and double last year’s figure. Bodes well for hulls production.
• Supply chains could become a challenge January 2025 forwards, with EUDR complications.

Sugarbeet

• Weather driven delays to plantings in general raises concerns over negative yield impact for 2024 campaign (October 2025 onwards)
• Overall global supplies deemed as adequate, with lower demand at this moment in time.

Cereals

Wheat

• Wheat demand continues to struggle. Wheat now perceived as value versus imported maize pricing.
• European prices have traded up €7.50t week-on-week as concerns over French and German quality remains.
• US crop rating continues to provide strong evidence of yield potential. US market has gained $2.75t week-on-week as the market consolidates.
• Expectation of lower export offers of Russian grain after increases in overall Russian grain crop forecast to 130.5 mmt, up 3.1 mmt. Coupled with a reduction in Russian export tax week-on-week, Russian sellers remain aggressive.

Barley

• The UK winter barley harvest has progressed at pace over the last week under favourable weather conditions and we estimate the UK harvest is approximately 50% complete.
• Nitrogen content averaging around 1.5-1.6% in malting varieties, and other quality metrics are fine. Overall, winter malting barley quality is good. Spring crops too early to call.
• Feed barley quality generally OK, meeting 63kg/HL as an average.
• Limited buyers and sellers at this time. Demand for barley stunted by the competitiveness of corn.

Maize

• In the US, 2024 is proving to be a great growing season, with record yield forecast giving 384m tonne crop and ending stocks of 53m tonnes. This represents a six year high.
• Demand and exports light. US 2024/25 export sales at a five-year low. Chinese demand soft with pig numbers down 5% year-on-year and a record domestic crop.
• Fund record short on Chicago agricultural commodities, in particular maize - one to monitor.

Fertiliser

• Liquidity remains thin in the urea market although values remain supported in the short to medium term. Egyptian producers continue to operate at only 80% capacity.
• Ammonia prices are now $110 tonne. This is more than when CF launched new season in June which continues to underpin pricing.
• CF have raised nitram prices in the UK by £10/t for December deliveries as imported offers remain limited, with net backs to producers better elsewhere.
• Phosphates have risen considerably over the last few weeks, globally by another $40 for DAP last week, which we have seen reflected in UK delivered prices.

Performance Products

• Fluctuating grass quality can result in omega-3 deficiency, linking to poor performance. Lintec can help make up any shortfall, being a high omega 3 product.
• As well as supporting fertility by boosting hormones involved in oestrus activity and the prevention of early embryo loss. Lintec can also reduce inflammation; alongside these benefits it is proven to reduce methane emissions.
• Restore nutrient balance after calving with Translac HydroBoost.
• Translac HydroBoost contains electrolytes, calcium and energy, everything a cow needs to quickly restore its nutrient balance after calving and to increase its blood calcium levels.
• Translac HydroBoost also stimulates dry matter intake after calving which helps in maintaining good milk production and body condition.
• Supplying the correct amount of vitamins, minerals and trace elements is important for optimum production, health and fertility.
• Deficiency or excess of minerals can reduce performance and seriously affect animal health. Get in touch with your account manager to make sure your ration is balanced efficiently.

Forage

Wholecrop Inoculants

• With the start of wholecrop harvest, do you have your preferred inoculant in stock?
• Advantage of inoculants include:
  • Reduced dry matter losses.
  • Helps minimise nutrient loss.
  • Provide more digestible neutral detergent fibre - NDF and crude protein.
  • Generate more lactic acid and reduce ammonia production.
  • Inhibit mould formation and therefore reducing mycotoxin risk.

• Inoculants available:
  • Ecocool – Aerobic stability (current offer buy 11 units get one FOC).
  • Ecocorn – Aerobic stability plus potassium sorbate, inhibitor of yeasts and moulds.
  • Sil – All 4x4 – Faster fermentation with aerobic stability and contains an enzyme.
  • Pioneer 11A44 – Suitable for higher dry matter crops. Rapid react option.
  • Pioneer 11GFT – Fibre technology.

Grass Reseeding

• Do you have grass leys that are not performing at their peak? Would they benefit from reseeding or overseeding?
• Contact us to discuss specific options according to your requirements.
• View our grass leaflet here.

Sustainable Farming Incentive SAM3

• Are you wondering what your best options are with regards to the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI)? Contact us to discuss your options.
• Looking at SAM3 herbal leys? We have a number of options available to ensure that production is not compromised.
• Request a copy of our environmental brochure.

Sustainable Farming Incentive SAM2

• Are you looking to put in a winter cover crop? Contact us to discuss your options.
• Request a copy of our environmental brochure.

Roots

• Brassica crops offer an additional extended summer feed option or can be used for finishing lambs and winter keep.
• Stubble turnips, forage rape, swedes, hybrid brassicas and root mixes are available from ForFarmers.
• You can find out more about our range of forage root crops here.

Autumn Cereals

• Many options are available for autumn sowing. Please contact us to discuss variety options.

Weekly currency trend

£1.285/$ - mixed

£1.187/Euro - mixed