12th June 2024 Commodity Market Report

Turkey will be halting wheat imports between 21st June - 15th October to support domestic prices. Turkey is Russia’s second biggest market.

• Sterling is slightly weaker against the dollar week on week, 0.2 cent versus $.

Proteins

Soya

• Argentinian soybean harvest is 94% complete vs 96% average pace.
• Midwest weather possibly turning hotter and drier in 10 days time, but high soil moistures prevent immediate threat.

• Sudden tax changes implemented in Brazil, impacts crush and exporters potentially switching demand to the US.
• USDA report 12th June - potential to reduce Brazilian crop from 154 million tonne.
• US soybean crop 87% planted versus 84% average pace. Crop rated 72% good/excellent, a 6 year high. Optimism.

Rapemeal

• Supplies extremely tight in the UK for June /July, Cargill and Erith extended maintenance.
• Margins favour rapemeal, crush may increase in Europe once we move out of current tight soyameal situation, plenty of old crop seed around.
• Prices will need to compete with Soya to keep meal flow, new crop prices starting to ease.

Maize Distillers

• Some concerns over planted U.S corn acreage being lower than USDA estimates.
• Shipping delays cause nearby technical markets in several European destinations.
• North American cattle demand declining due to gradual switch to summer diets.

Fibres

Palm Kernel

• Export market sold out for June & first half July.
• Crush margins remain positive so no expected shut downs.

Soya Hulls

• Short term energy restrictions in Argentina could reduce crush capacity.
• Some yield figures for Argentine crop better than expected leading to speculation the crop size will be increased.
• Overall lower global demand could drive crushers to look for spot demand if stock levels begin to climb.

Sugarbeet

• EU sets higher tariffs on Russian/Belarusian sugarbeet pellets, effective July 1^st.
• Weather driven delays to plantings in general raises concerns over negative yield impact for 2024 campaign (Oct onwards).

Cereals

Wheat

• Russia declare a state of emergency in 10 regions following adverse crop weather but this is for insurance purposes and no issues are foreseen in fulfilling export commitments.
• EU & UK both -3 million tonnes year on year.
• Global 2024/25 wheat ending stocks excl. China -4 million tonnes year on year.

Barley

• Chinese imports could be big as no import restrictions unlike wheat and maize.
• 2024/25 estimated bigger crops for global; 150 million tonnes, +8 million year on year.
• EU - 54.5 million, which is +6.8 million.
• UK - 7.5 million, which is +0.5 million.

Maize

• BAGE peg the Argentinian maize crop at 46.5 million tonnes vs 53 million per USDA.
• Hedge funds still short of 25 million tonnes of CBOT maize.
• US maize crop 95% planted vs 95% average pace. Crop rated 74% good/excellent, a 6 year high.

Fertiliser

• CF Fertilisers released new season prices for 34.5% Nitram last week with only limited quantities for sale in the June-Aug and September window. Uptake was good and tonnages are now sold out, so we now await further terms next week.
• With a firmer grains and energy market, resistance to pricing has been low with the break-even ration and return on investment appearing to work on most arable units.
• As always, CF releasing terms have encouraged buying across the full range of nitrogen and nitrogen + sulphur products. With further liquid terms being released today the UK fertiliser market looks all set to be busy heading into next week.
• Urea pricing has moved up following the shutdown of the four major Egyptian urea producers due to natural gas shortages. Other North African producers have also raised their July FOB prices in line with the market.
• Chinese domestic prices have beaten forecasts and are continuing to strengthen, this will delay/reduce any Chinese exports and prolong the upward support on urea, Phosphate, and NPK prices.
• With a mixed global outlook MOP prices remain unchanged.

Performance Products

• Fluctuating grass quality can result in omega-3 deficiency, linking to poor performance. Lintec can help make up any shortfall, being a high omega 3 product. As well as supporting fertility by boosting hormones involved in oestrus activity and the prevention of early embryo loss. Lintec can also reduce inflammation; alongside these benefits it is proven to reduce methane emissions.
• Restore nutrient balance after calving with Translac HydroBoost. Translac HydroBoost contains electrolytes, calcium and energy, everything a cow needs to quickly restore its nutrient balance after calving and to increase its blood calcium levels. Translac HydroBoost also stimulates dry matter intake after calving which helps in maintaining good milk production and body condition.
• Supplying the correct amount of vitamins, minerals and trace elements is important for optimum production, health and fertility. Deficiency or excess of minerals can reduce performance and seriously affect animal health. Get in touch with your account manager to make sure your ration is balanced efficiently.

Forage

Roots

• Brassica crops can offer an additional extended summer feed option or for finishing lambs and winter keep.
• Stubble turnips, forage rape, swedes, hybrid brassicas and root mixes.
• View our root brochure here.

Sustainable Farming Incentive

• Are you wondering what are the best options with regards to the Sustainable Farming Incentive?Contact us to discuss options.
• Looking at SAM3 herbal leys? We have a number of options available to ensure that production is not compromised.
• Request a copy of our environmental brochure.

Weekly currency trend

£1.274/$ - Mixed

£1.186/Euro - Mixed