3rd July 2024 Commodity Market Report

Friday’s US quarterly grain stocks report gave a bearish reaction for maize, but a mixed reaction for wheat and soybeans.

• Sterling is weaker against the dollar week-on-week, 0.5 cent versus $.

Proteins

Soya

• Friday’s USDA, for the US quarterly stocks report were mixed for soybeans. Two million tonnes above expected but area 0.6 million acres less than expected, costing c. 0.8 million tonnes, with possibility for acres to be crimped again in future after floods.
• Argentinian oilseed workers strike likely to be short and have limited impact – for now, something to keep an eye on.
• Midwest weather mostly favourable across the piece. August is the key weather month for the US soybean crop.
• Crop ratings in the US remain at the top end of the five year range (67 % G/E).
• Further bean selling from the South American farmer will add pressure - Brazil 66 % sold, Argentina only 29% sold - farmers waiting for government intervention.

Rapemeal

• Meal supplies remain tight in the UK, although Cargill a seller ex-Liverpool.
• Improving conditions in Canada - big crop > 20 million tonne crop expected.
• Good demand for biodiesel. EU crushers will switch to rape crush in August/September, so increased meal supplies should add more pressure as we approach August.

Maize Distillers

• Slight dip to US ethanol production week-on-week but still strong at an average over 1 million bpd for six consecutive weeks.
• USDA quarterly grain stocks report bearish for corn with stocks at four year highs.

Fibres

Palm Kernel

• Export market sold out for June and first half July.
• Crush margins above $11 so production expected to be strong.

Soya Hulls

• Short term strike announced on Thursday by Argentine oilseed workers union in San Lorenzo, Rosario and Bahia Blanca port ends with limited market impacts, but serves as a reminder of political instability.

Sugarbeet

• EU sets higher tariffs on Russian/Belarusian sugarbeet pellets, effective July 1^st.
• Egyptian sugar beet for 2024 campaign available for export, US market also seeking export homes.

Cereals

Wheat

• Friday’s US quarterly grain stocks report gave a mixed reaction for wheat. Stocks a three year high and 0.5 million tonnes above expected, however area 0.5 million acres less than expected, losing c. 0.7 million tonnes.
• The European Commission revise 2024 harvest estimates of wheat, to + 1.7 million tonnes month-on-month.

Barley

• The European Commission revise 2024 harvest estimates of barley, to – 0.5 million tonnes month-on-month.
• 2024/25 global ending stocks:use ratio tightest since 2000.

Maize

• Friday’s US quarterly grain stocks report gave a bearish reaction for maize - stocks a four year high and 3 million tonnes more than expected.
• However area 1.2 million acres more than expected due to fast and early plantings, worth c. 6 million tonnes.
• The European Commission revise 2024 harvest estimates of maize, to – 3.8 million tonnes month-on-month. Rains hampered plantings in the west.
• Heat stress forecast for the Black Sea region this week, will impact maize with wheat already maturing.
• July is the key weather month for the US maize crop.

Performance Products

• Fluctuating grass quality can result in omega-3 deficiency, linking to poor performance. Lintec can help make up any shortfall, being a high omega 3 product.
• As well as supporting fertility by boosting hormones involved in oestrus activity and the prevention of early embryo loss. Lintec can also reduce inflammation; alongside these benefits it is proven to reduce methane emissions.
• Restore nutrient balance after calving with Translac HydroBoost.
• Translac HydroBoost contains electrolytes, calcium and energy, everything a cow needs to quickly restore its nutrient balance after calving and to increase its blood calcium levels.
• Translac HydroBoost also stimulates dry matter intake after calving which helps in maintaining good milk production and body condition.
• Supplying the correct amount of vitamins, minerals and trace elements is important for optimum production, health and fertility.
• Deficiency or excess of minerals can reduce performance and seriously affect animal health. Get in touch with your account manager to make sure your ration is balanced efficiently.

Fertiliser

• Urea markets continue to firm with news from Egypt and India.
• Egyptian urea manufacturing faces extended production outages as temperatures soar and natural gas is diverted to compensate for the surge in air conditioning.
• India issued a tender on Monday, although they have not specified a quantity, the extended delivery period suggests they might buy a significant volume.
• Persistent tight supply continues to support the TSP market after the recent price hikes. The same can be said for DAP and MAP.
• The nitrate market has quietened and stabilised, it is yet to be seen whether the Indian urea tender will spur more market action.
• A strengthening USD is putting pressure on UK imports.

Forage

Roots

• Brassica crops offer an additional extended summer feed option or can be used for finishing lambs and winter keep.
• Stubble turnips, forage rape, swedes, hybrid brassicas and root mixes are available from ForFarmers.
• You can find out more about our range of forage root crops here.

Grass Reseeding

• Do you have grass leys that are not performing at their peak? Would they benefit from reseeding or overseeding?
• Contact us to discuss specific options according to your requirements.
• View our grass leaflet here.

Sustainable Farming Incentive

• Are you wondering what your best options are with regards to the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI)? Contact us to discuss your options.
• Looking at SAM3 herbal leys? We have a number of options available to ensure that production is not compromised.
• Request a copy of our environmental brochure.

Co-products

• Have you used up spare forage stocks through last winter?
• Now is a good time to look at your forage stocks and consider buffer feeding.
• Co-products are a great way to conserve home grown forage stocks.
• ForFarmers have a large portfolio of co-products to offer currently including moist blends, brewers grains and distillers draff.
• Pitting these products through the summer months either under grass or independently will provide a great forage extender throughout the winter.
• Limited availability so contact the team now to secure your tonnage.

Weekly currency trend

£1.264/$ - Mixed

£1.180/Euro – Mixed