5th June 2024 Commodity Market Report

Supplies nearby continue to be very tight for Hipro soya and rapemeal.

• Sterling is slightly weaker against the dollar week-on-week, 0.2 cent versus $.

Proteins

Soya

• Nearby availability extremely tight at all origins and destinations.
• Impact of flooding in Southern Brazil yet to be confirmed.
• A healthy rebound in South American production this year, up 17 million tonne year-on-year.
• A 121 million tonne crop predicted in the US, which is +7.8 million tonne year-on-year. Early days but on track so far – crop going in well.
• US soybean crop 78% planted vs 73% average pace.
• Funds now long of meal with a potential rally on the oil share on the cards – margins look good, so meal availability will be high once nearby tightness is solved.

Rapemeal

• Reduction in EU crop (tbc) and an 850,000 drop in the UK crop meaning exports relied on for over 50% of the crush. Western Australian acreage needs watching.
• Supplies extremely tight in the UK for June/July. Cargill and Erith extended maintenance.
• Margins favour rapemeal. Crush may increase in Europe once we move out of current tight soya meal situation, plenty of old crop seed around.

Maize Distillers

• Price support in Europe coming from tightness in rapemeal markets.
• Impact of import levies on Russian oilseeds needs monitoring.
• Ethanol margins are positive for US producers with a largely encouraging outlook with corn planting ahead of average at 83% complete and drought conditions no longer an issue.

Fibres

Palm Kernel

• Malaysia and Indonesia received below normal rainfall levels over the past few weeks – could start to impact forward yields if sustained.
• Origin unchanged week-on-week. China hand-to-mouth, only buying small amounts of spot.
• Impact of last year’s El Nino much lower than feared with 2024 production now expected to be average.

Soya Hulls

• Short term energy restrictions in Argentina could reduce crush capacity.
• Some yield figures for Argentine crop better than expected leading to speculation the crop size will be increased.

Sugar Beet

• EU sets higher tariffs on Russian/Belarusian sugar beet pellets, effective July 1^st.
• Egyptian sugar beet for 2024 campaign available for export, US market also seeking export homes.

Cereals

Wheat

• Wheat market volatile basis Black Sea crops, losses on dry, hot weather after earlier frost damage.
• Russia -12 million tonnes year-on-year and Ukraine -12 million tonnes from peak.
• US winter wheat crop in best condition in four years giving yield optimism.
• French winter wheat crop now rated just 61% good/excellent, -2% week-on-week, a four year low.

Barley

• Firm wheat market supports barley although moves higher not pound for pound.

Maize

• Ukraine 2024 maize crop 15 million tonnes below peak, exports at 10 year low.
• Short covering and hedge funds still short of 19 million tonnes of CBOT maize.
• 2024/25 US ending stocks pegged at 53.4 million tonnes, a six year high.
• US maize crop 91% planted vs 89% average pace. First crop rating is 75% good/excellent vs 70% expected.

Forage

Roots

• Brassica crops can offer an additional extended summer feed option or for finishing lambs and winter keep.
• Stubble turnips, forage rape, swedes, hybrid brassicas and root mixes.
• View our root brochure here.

Sustainable Farming Incentive

• Are you wondering what are the best options with regards to the Sustainable Farming Incentive?
• Contact us to discuss options.
• Looking at SAM3 herbal leys? We have a number of options available to ensure that production is not compromised.
• Request a copy of our environmental brochure.

Fertiliser

• There have been multiple upticks in AN pricing in Europe since new season terms were released, supported by firming urea prices.
• Urea prices have maintained their gains over the past weeks. Egyptian production remains running at a reduced 80% capacity with no fixed end date on the natural gas usage restrictions currently in place.
• High global prices for DAP and MAP have pulled up TSP prices as it becomes a more attractive alternative.
• China is experiencing high domestic demand for urea and NPKs, which will delay any possibility of exports until July.
• In the UK we are still awaiting a new season AN price from CF Fertilisers, with May prices at present looking likely to carry over into June.
• However, liquid producers have stolen the march and Brineflow new season terms are available at attractive levels with uptake to date being good.
• GBP is still looking relatively strong versus USD.

Weekly currency trend

£1.276/$ - Mixed

£1.174/Euro - Mixed