Supplies nearby continue to be very tight for Hipro soya and rapemeal.
Sterling is slightly weaker against the dollar week-on-week, 0.2 cent versus $.
Proteins
Soya
Nearby availability extremely tight at all origins and destinations.
Impact of flooding in Southern Brazil yet to be confirmed.
A healthy rebound in South American production this year, up 17 million tonne year-on-year.
A 121 million tonne crop predicted in the US, which is +7.8 million tonne year-on-year. Early days but on track so far – crop going in well.
US soybean crop 78% planted vs 73% average pace.
Funds now long of meal with a potential rally on the oil share on the cards – margins look good, so meal availability will be high once nearby tightness is solved.
Rapemeal
Reduction in EU crop (tbc) and an 850,000 drop in the UK crop meaning exports relied on for over 50% of the crush. Western Australian acreage needs watching.
Supplies extremely tight in the UK for June/July. Cargill and Erith extended maintenance.
Margins favour rapemeal. Crush may increase in Europe once we move out of current tight soya meal situation, plenty of old crop seed around.
Maize Distillers
Price support in Europe coming from tightness in rapemeal markets.
Impact of import levies on Russian oilseeds needs monitoring.
Ethanol margins are positive for US producers with a largely encouraging outlook with corn planting ahead of average at 83% complete and drought conditions no longer an issue.
Fibres
Palm Kernel
Malaysia and Indonesia received below normal rainfall levels over the past few weeks – could start to impact forward yields if sustained.
Origin unchanged week-on-week. China hand-to-mouth, only buying small amounts of spot.
Impact of last year’s El Nino much lower than feared with 2024 production now expected to be average.
Soya Hulls
Short term energy restrictions in Argentina could reduce crush capacity.
Some yield figures for Argentine crop better than expected leading to speculation the crop size will be increased.
Sugar Beet
EU sets higher tariffs on Russian/Belarusian sugar beet pellets, effective July 1st.
Egyptian sugar beet for 2024 campaign available for export, US market also seeking export homes.
Cereals
Wheat
Wheat market volatile basis Black Sea crops, losses on dry, hot weather after earlier frost damage.
Russia -12 million tonnes year-on-year and Ukraine -12 million tonnes from peak.
US winter wheat crop in best condition in four years giving yield optimism.
French winter wheat crop now rated just 61% good/excellent, -2% week-on-week, a four year low.
Barley
Firm wheat market supports barley although moves higher not pound for pound.
Maize
Ukraine 2024 maize crop 15 million tonnes below peak, exports at 10 year low.
Short covering and hedge funds still short of 19 million tonnes of CBOT maize.
2024/25 US ending stocks pegged at 53.4 million tonnes, a six year high.
US maize crop 91% planted vs 89% average pace. First crop rating is 75% good/excellent vs 70% expected.
Forage
Roots
Brassica crops can offer an additional extended summer feed option or for finishing lambs and winter keep.
Stubble turnips, forage rape, swedes, hybrid brassicas and root mixes.
There have been multiple upticks in AN pricing in Europe since new season terms were released, supported by firming urea prices.
Urea prices have maintained their gains over the past weeks. Egyptian production remains running at a reduced 80% capacity with no fixed end date on the natural gas usage restrictions currently in place.
High global prices for DAP and MAP have pulled up TSP prices as it becomes a more attractive alternative.
China is experiencing high domestic demand for urea and NPKs, which will delay any possibility of exports until July.
In the UK we are still awaiting a new season AN price from CF Fertilisers, with May prices at present looking likely to carry over into June.
However, liquid producers have stolen the march and Brineflow new season terms are available at attractive levels with uptake to date being good.
GBP is still looking relatively strong versus USD.
Weekly currency trend
£1.276/$ - Mixed
£1.174/Euro - Mixed
Previous commodity reports
To review commodity trends presented throughout the year, view our past commodity reports.